Wednesday, 30 July 2014



REVEALED!

THE NORTHERNS IGP CANDIDATE

-Present AIG Abba Sulaiman As New Candidate
-Why Hamza Al-Mustapha Is Rooting For Him

It has emerged that Major Hamza Al-Mustapha, a former Chief Security Officer (CSO) to the late Head of State, General Sani Abacha is driving the political vehicle to make  Suleiman Abba the new Inspector General of Police.

Abba, an Assistant Inspector General of Police (AIG) in charge of Zone 7, served as Aide de Camp (ADC) to Mrs Maryam Abacha, during her First Ladyship to General Sani Abacha.

Jigawa-born Abba was also a key member of Al-Mustapha’s dreaded Strike Force.

After Abacha’s sudden death, a stupendously wealthy Abba managed to pay his way through the ranks to become
Commissioner of Police in Rivers State and then AIG.

Al-Mustapha, Pointblanknews.com gathered, had exploited his relationship with the Presidency to push Abba’s candidacy for the plum job. When Jonathan didn’t appear convinced, Al-Mustapha recruited top northern traditional rulers into the campaign.

Interestingly, the outgoing IG has thrown his weight behind Abba’s candidacy. Abubakar had upon appointment as IG in turn appointed Abba chairman, Police Cooperative.

Each member of the over 370,000- strong police force contributes a minimum of N200 monthly, making the cooperative the largest and richest cooperative in Nigeria.

It was gathered that several officers had raised questions on the running of the cooperative by Abba and his godfather, the retiring IG.

A source at the Ministry of Police Affairs said Abubakar’s support for Abba ” expected.”

He said, “AIG Abba has been MD Abubakar’s darling. During the Abacha days, the former greatly assisted the outgoing IG, who at the time was just a struggling officer.

“No sooner had MD been appointed IG that he brought his old pal (Abba), appointed him AIG and put him in charge of police cooperative, the fattest cash cow in the country.

“It is expected that having dipped your hands too much in the cooperative purse, you need a trusted friend to be IG and cover your tracks,” the source submitted.

Abubakar’s predecessor, Hafiz Ringim, is a muslim and from the same Jigawa State as Suleiman Abba. The retiring IG is from Zamfara, the same northwest zone with Ringim and Abba.

Should Jonathan succumb to pressure and appoint Abba the new police boss, offered a Presidency source, “Abba would be the third man in a row from the North west zone to become IG.”

Aside Kam Salem (Borno), Gambo Jimeta (Adamawa) and Aliyu Attah (Kogi), all past Inspector Generals of Police from the north have come from the north west zone.

The past IGs who hailed from the northwest zone include Mohammed D Yusuf (Katsina), Adamu Suleiman (Kano), Ibrahim Coomasie (Katsina), Hafiz Ringim (Jigawa), and outgoing Abubakar.


 my daddy’s books are not my type of books...Wole Soyinka daughter

Moremi Soyinka-Onijala, lawyer and one of the daughters of Professor Wole Soyinka, recalls the thrills and the pains of growing up as a child of the Nobel laureate as well as the personality of the renowned playwright in this interview.

What are your fondest memories of Professor Wole Soyinka as a father?

Such memories will come from when I was a child, when he was around, when we were growing up in UI and other parts of Ibadan. You know he was in and out a lot. One thing I still remember was when my sisters and I used to plait his beard and his hair – he has always had a lot of hair. He would sit down patiently and we would take a comb and we would be weaving and practising styles and all that. And when we finished, he would say, “Now that you are done, loosen it and comb it back.” I also remember when my siblings and I used to have the opportunity to go and watch the performances at the Arts Theatre. Because we were always free viewers, my father would not let us sit on the chairs that are paid for, so we had to sit on the stairs and just enjoy the show. Those are just a few of the memories.

You said he was not always around when you were growing up. Was that a concern to you then?

Definitely, it was a concern and even though we are grown up, it still is a concern, not just for us the children, but also for the grandchildren. Our dad is not, and never was a typical dad; neither is he a typical grandfather at all. Right from when I was a toddler and when some of my younger siblings were born, he wasn’t around a lot. He was either away in detention, away in exile, or pursuing other career interests. He was at University of Ibadan briefly, and then resigned, I can’t remember for what reason.

Then, he got a sabbatical to England and I learnt from my mother that actually she was to go with him. But she thought that there had been so much instability for the family, so it was better for her to stay and just take care of the children. We were small but we were told, and we do have some memories. He was then sent into what we called Gowon detention. And then he was away on exile, writing and into various things. It was tough.

Though he is no longer in full time employment, as you would say, the fact still is that the very nature of his work and his interests take him around the world. Even when he is around, you may not get to see him because he is busy writing or defending the abuse of some human or civil rights somewhere, you just can’t see him.

For the grandchildren, it would have been nice that even though we didn’t have that steady parenting from him, the grandchildren could benefit more. He is all over the world. When people ask me what is his address? I say there is no address, except an e-mail address.

Was his activism a thing of concern to you and your siblings while growing up?

It really was. The truth is that even then when we were young, we had a sense that there were those who admired our dad, there were those who didn’t. I will use myself as an example. I attended Queen’s School Ibadan – 1973 to 1979; my dad was not around most of the period. He would breeze in and out occasionally. And we had teachers who admired him for what he was doing – whether he was challenging whichever government was in power, his writings or what have you, and we had those who didn’t agree with him.

And so, as human beings, they would try not to take it out on us, but they did! And the funny thing is that it was not just then; it’s even still happening now. It was a concern and is still a concern. When I was in the boarding house the visiting day was every two weeks, but my father was never a visitor. It just didn’t happen. But, of course, my mom, Olayide, doubled up; she really tried with other relatives and grandparents, aunts and uncles. But we know when they called you, “Moremi, come, go to the dining room, the visitors are here” – it was a big dining room and parents sat at a table with their children – you would see your friend’s dad there, you would not see your own. But we coped.

He had to go on exile during the General Sani Abacha dictatorship. Was there a concern in his family at that time about his life?

Yes, we were concerned for dad’s life as well as the lives of the entire family. My husband, Olutola Onijala, was a diplomat, he recently retired from the Federal Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Between 1990 and 1993, we were at post in New York. We came back in 1993. I recall that when we came back, we eventually stayed in 1004, V.I. Initially we had to stay in a family house in Ebute Metta, Lagos, because we didn’t have government quarters. When the problems started with the military regime, it was very tough. The soldiers of Abacha whose names I don’t know were looking for my father and when they couldn’t find him, they started watching the family. We were very concerned about my dad’s safety and were all relieved when he left the country.

Probably they thought that he would come and see us or we would be able to lead them to him, whenever we visited him. We had been warned to be careful and so on. But how careful can you be? You have to live your life. I had had all my three children then and they were in school in Ikoyi when, one day, I got a call from the headmistress of my children’s primary school that their security people were concerned because they had seen people that were in the State Security Service.

And some of the parents who were in the secret service also told us. Specifically, I remember somebody who will remain nameless, but a family friend and colleague of my husband. who actually came to meet us and warned us about the evil plans of some people in authority. I don’t know whether my younger brother Ilemakin, left in late 1995 or early 1996, but in the summer of 1996, we also had to leave – all of us, with the exception of my late sister Yetade

My husband stayed behind as he was working in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and opted to watch the home front. Indeed, he was persecuted in various ways for being the son-in-law of Wole Soyinka and was ‘marked’ along with others as ‘NADECO’. Some of the persecutors are now top politicians. I was working with the National Insurance Corporation of Nigeria as a lawyer then, so I took leave of absence initially, with the understanding of my boss then, but eventually I had to retire when it looked like coming back was not going to be very soon. It was tough, in fact, terrible. We were always watching our back even when we fled; we ran away just like that: we just took the children and left, but we kept the house.

We did not have money, some friends, especially two people who should remain nameless, gave us substantial sums of money so that we could buy tickets and have a little extra for the initial cost of settling down. They know themselves and God knows them, and I am sure He will surely reward them. I think they (the military) thought we were going on vacation and that was how we left.

But it was tough because we had to leave my husband behind and my mom couldn’t go because she was working as the University Librarian at the then Ogun State University. My immediate younger sister, who is now late, opted to stay behind with our mom. We became refugees in another country; these are some memories that I don’t like to recall.

Even outside the country, we were always worried about dad, knowing that various attempts were even made to harm him while abroad and also, we were worrying about the members of our family that were left behind and still worrying about how we would settle down in a strange land. One of my husband’s very close friends who is sadly now late, Joseph Ade Adefolalu, took us into his home initially at very great cost to himself and his career, as he was a diplomat representing the government that we were running away from in the United States of America. How can we ever pay such a family back for their goodness and sacrifice?

You’ve mentioned some of the pains of being a daughter to such a world renowned Professor and activist. But what are the pleasures of being sired by such a person adored by many all over the world?

The pains and the pleasures are continuous. Those periods that I recalled were periods of acute pains. But some still continue because, as I told you, the world is always divided into two or even more – some for, some against, some neutral. And even at this stage – most of us are married, our children are married – there is still a lot of hostility and at the same time that becomes counter-balanced with pleasures or what I will call some neutralising effects.

For example, you are travelling, you are going through the airport and you meet some officials – whether it is Immigration or Customs. For whatever reasons, they see the names and they say, ‘Haa, Baba nko? (How is your father?) They usually want to give you that courtesy. In the course of life generally, even at work, at play, church, for those who know, I would say, by and large, more people are happy to associate with you, more people are willing to bend over backwards to do something kind because of what they feel are his (dad’s) own sacrifices. Some highly placed people in society, politically and in the private sector, have also been very kind to us when the occasion calls for it.

They too shall remain anonymous but God knows them and will bless them for their concern. But professionally and career wise, it has been tough for all of us, I must say. Four of my father’s children were compelled to be in exile, thus dislocating our careers and families. When we came back into the country, it was not just easy to pick up the pieces from where we had dropped them. Our mates and colleagues had progressed smoothly, when we got back it was problematic knowing where to start from or even finding employment.

From that 1996 that we went into exile, for example, I was blessed to come back into the country in 2003, at the invitation of then President Olusegun Obasanjo who saw the work I was doing in the US and invited me to come and do something like that in his administration. I must mention that I remain eternally grateful to Baba Obasanjo for that opportunity. It was a time of learning and serving those in need as my portfolio covered legal matters, humanitarian issues, refugee issues, youth and related stuff. Moreover, it was because of the exposure I had during Obasanjo’s time that I was also appointed to continue in a similar capacity under the Yar’Adua and Jonathan administration and later, the Jonathan/Sambo administration. But you find that while working in government even at that high level, there are people who don’t just want to see you and who are very resentful. You will recall that throughout President Obasanjo’s administration, my dad didn’t give him a break even though I was working there as a Special Assistant.

So, you had people – my colleagues – who understood you don’t have to visit the sins of the father on the children. But there were those who were belligerent, antagonistic, wondering what you were doing there. They said things like, “Why is Baba Obasanjo appointing the daughter of WS?” Nasty articles were written in the papers by people who did not know me and had never met me. In fact, somebody who would remain nameless, a person very, very highly placed in the political system who came to the Presidential Villa and I was introduced to by the then Deputy Chief of Staff, raised his eyes and said, ‘Hen hen, Wole pikin dey here.’ And the Deputy Chief of Staff said, “Yes, she is very good at her job” and so on, but the guest said, “Him papa dey abuse us and his pikin dey here dey chop”.

I had to smile, and greeted him, “You are welcome sir, it’s nice meeting you.” But I pondered over it for a long time and I concluded that this was really how so many people feel. Because of his age, his position and his experience, he felt free to say it, but many won’t say it out but they would act it out.

You will just find obstacles and challenges where they shouldn’t be. During President Obasanjo’s time, towards the tail end of his second term, when all the rumours of whether there was going to be a third term agenda were flying around – though we were in the villa, we were not operating at the level of those who really knew the facts behind the rumours – I had death threats severally because my father was speaking against the alleged third term agenda, among other policies of the administration that he disagreed with. Those threatening me went to the extent of saying, “We know where you live.” And with regard to my last daughter who I had brought back from the US to live with us, these faceless people said, “We know where she is schooling, warn your father” and things like that. So, there were people that felt I got the appointment because of my father’s connection and so on. They didn’t know my professional background, where I may have worked and the experience that I had.

But that opinion may have been prevalent due to the fact that if you study the administration of President Obasanjo, he definitely had some of the children of high-placed or highly regarded people in the society but I don’t think that any of them was unqualified; in fact, most were overqualified. That may have been a political strategy or may have just been his way of offering recompense for certain pains that your family had unjustly suffered or for sacrifices that some families had made even as far back as during the civil war. Well, the President probably recognised that and wanted some members of such families to come and work for him, and contribute to nation building.

But some people don’t just believe that you actually, by virtue of your field of study or expertise, merit such positions; there is nothing that you do that would satisfy them. But on the whole, I still want to thank God for the fact that Wole Soyinka is my dad and I believe that my siblings will agree. Internationally, there is that recognition. Within the nation, there is that recognition, but sometimes, you just want to go incognito, not to be singled out for special attention.

I will tell you something: Even when we had to go into exile and we had to go through all sorts of immigration procedures in the respective countries that gave us safe harbour, the fact that we are his children helped a lot to ensure that we got the papers that we needed to stay, nothing more than that – the Canadian government, the British government, the American government were not feeding us or anything. You were on your own, you had to suffer like everybody else, you had to do menial jobs to cater for yourself and family till you could find a niche in society.

But it was just a coincidence in the US that the people interviewing us were those who knew what was happening in Nigeria. So all they needed was proof that you are his children and we thank God for that. We learnt from childhood that our dad was a different dad. I think our mother did a very good job of shielding us from pain and a sense of loss as children [but] we still felt the pain. We were acutely aware that there was a gaping hole. Dad was not there for any graduation ceremony and all those important landmarks we went through in life. He was not there even for marriage; he was in exile. So we got used to those things.

But even while he was away, did he take active interest in the choices his children were making, like in terms of academics, marriage and so on?

No. I cannot even deny it. That was left for mom. He is probably the most liberal dad that I know. If you bring somebody from the moon and you say this is your husband, this is your wife, that’s okay. He was not the kind of father that would say, “Whose child do you want to marry? Let’s go and find out.” He left that to mom to do. For example, when we started applying for common entrance and JAMB in those days, you would just come and tell him wherever he was at that time that “I have been accepted to this and that”. Maybe with the exception of one of my sisters who wanted to go to Ife (Obafemi Awolowo University) to study International Relations. There was some politics – even though my father was at Ife. You know how academics have camps – his own camp was different from that of the Dean of that Faculty at that time and my sister did exceptionally well, she was a distinction student and so on.

Maybe because of that the Dean did not want to give her admission. So my mother, who was at UI, sent to my father in Ife and said, “This child did very well, talk to Professor So, So and So.” But he (my dad) said, “No, you know Prof XX and I are not on best of terms” or something like that. My mother said, “Eh hen, on this altar of academic nonsense, you will not come and ruin my child’s life.” So she had to physically drive to Ife with my sister and went to meet the Dean, the Professor and all that. She also called on her cousins who were also Professors in Ife to intervene. She really stood in the gap, but left to my father, because of his principles, my sister Peyi would have stayed at home or sat in the house for another year.

And my sister was bent on going to Ife – her school certificate result, her JAMB result, everything was excellent. So, in that case, I think he was compelled very, very grudgingly at the end to intervene and even till tomorrow, my sister still remembers the drama surrounding her admission to Unife. And now, she has made a career of that very field, reaching the very pinnacle as a tenured Professor of Political Science.

I don’t think he knew when any of us was doing school certificate examination or common entrance or how we chose the schools we wanted to go to and so on. He would just be told that you were there. But again, my mum, who understood my dad’s ways, made sure that he was fully informed about how well we were doing in school and so on. And then, if it was a time when he was in Nigeria, we would go and visit and in that way, we would update him. If he was out of the country, turn by turn we would go and visit him whether he was in UK, Ghana and so on.

Then we got that opportunity to bond or build a relationship. But better opportunities at bonding with him came later in life for those of us who were in the university for the brief time he was at Ife. Though we were in the hostels, you could go and visit him anytime you wanted because he was there. Or even much later in life as we settled down to build our own families and made time to visit and be with him.

Do you read his books?

A few, because while I love reading, my daddy’s books are not my type of books. It is just a matter of taste. I read a lot. I love legal thrillers, I love autobiographies of some sort, I love political drama, things like that, maybe because I studied law. I don’t know how I developed that interest – anything that has to do with law, court room, KGB, CIA things like that. I have piles of books beside my bed. My daddy’s books, the ones I have read that I can recall now, I liked Ake and Ibadan, because they were easy to relate with, the themes resonated with me, many of the characters were people I later knew. I enjoyed reading about his childhood and beyond and how he related with his parents, whom we grandchildren knew. But you won’t find me reading a play for leisure, that is not just me, maybe some of my siblings. And poetry, I am not into that, I would rather watch it being performed. You know when we were in school, when we had to do one or two of his books, the literature teachers would send me to him to ask him what this play or poem meant and I would tell my father when I saw him and he would tell me that, “Tell your teacher that if he or she can take me back to the time and place where I wrote that particular book, I would be able to explain.” It was only then that they gave me rest, because they did not understand. If my teacher didn’t understand, how would I understand?

Finally, how did your family receive the news of the award of his 1986 Nobel Prize in Literature?

You should have been there! Although we saw it coming, still its announcement was received with much jubilation. I recall that we all gathered in his sister’s house in Lagos. It was during the regime of General Ibrahim Babangida (rtd.) and he was so proud that he provided a plane to fly the delegation accompanying my dad to receive the award. My brother was able to represent all the children and my mother was also able to attend the ceremony. That award really propelled my father unto the world stage in a very different and more prominent manner. We all basked in that glow. I will tell you a joke: a few of my maternal aunts, whenever they see me at family gatherings, still refer to me as “Nobeeeelll”, drawing out the pronunciation of the word. And funny enough, so do some of my childhood classmates.




HOW MADAM PATIENCE JONATHAN LIED AGAINST ME…..AMAECHI
 

The Rivers State Governor and Chairman of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum, Mr. Rotimi Amaechi, on Friday said the wife of the President, Mrs. Patience Jonathan, lied against him in her public account of the issues that snowballed into the misunderstanding between the two of them.
“I want to be put on record that the wife of the President said when my wife came to beg me, I pushed her away. I have never quarrelled with my wife publicly and I will never quarrel with my wife publicly.

“There was no time I pushed my wife away:
“There is no time I will push my wife away. I just want to correct that so that nobody goes away with the impression that somebody told my wife, ‘go and talk to your husband, she came and I pushed her away.”
The governor spoke in Port Harcourt when clergymen of Niger Delta Bishops Forum paid him a courtesy visit at the Government House.
He said it was important for the public to have a true picture of what transpired between him and the President’s wife.
He said, “No, that day, I simply walked away into a bus and I sat down until they finished. So, all I did was to go back to the bus to enable my wife to perform her official function of someone who had received the wife of the President and escort her to all the places she wanted to go to.”
Amaechi said his perceived misunderstanding with the First Lady arose out of his desire to provide an environment conducive for learning for the children of Okrika; the home town of Mrs. Jonathan, adding that he had enormous respect for both President Goodluck Jonathan and his wife.
Amaechi expressed the hope that the mediation would work. He said, “I hope that it (mediation) will work. Niger Delta monarchs came and no result came out of it and since you are men of God, I hope that this one God will bless it. I hope so because that is the same way I spoke to them (the monarchs) and they said, ‘watch out, it will work,’ and they never returned because it never worked.
“There are so many persons who had come to mediate, but nothing came out of it. If it is peace that everybody wants, I am ready for peace. When you say you are seeking for permission, I am wondering why, because if you did not have the permission, you would not have gone to see the wife of the President.
“The mere fact that you have seen the wife of the President means that you have initiated the peace move. So, you don’t require any further approval than the approval of God that you have started with.”
Amaechi, who agreed that Mrs. Jonathan was his mother, however, argued that no mother would take away a state police commissioner to the detriment of her son.
He further said, “As the governor, by protocol, I will receive the President and you know that the President is not just our President, he is the head of the nation. But when the wife of the President came, I went to receive her at the airport and she slept in Port Harcourt.
“The next day, she came up with a programme that was not part of the official programme and what was the programme? She wanted her people to receive her in Okrika. There was no plan; there was no protocol arrangement, nothing.
“We just had to quickly arrange protocol to take her to the place. But to do that, we wanted to also show her, as part of her own programme, not our programme, the projects we had done in Okrika.
“So, we took her to the Rufus Ada-George Ring Road in Okrika, which we started and completed and then somewhere, we saw a health centre and a primary school and I said stop, let me show her this health centre.
“We looked at the health centre and we were satisfied. At the primary school, there were houses around, too close for comfort; no football field, no playground, no space at all around the school and I turned to the wife of the President and said, ‘Your Excellency ma, we have not finished with this building, we would buy the houses that are surrounding the primary school and demolish them’.
“Once she heard the word ‘demolish,’ the wife of the President flared up and took the microphone from me and started all sorts of diatribes that I won’t mention here for the respect I have for the office of the wife of the President.
“When she finished, I felt that it was wrong to confront the wife of the President publicly. When she finished, I withdrew and walked into the bus. When we got to the ground of the reception, which was not part of our programme, which she just included by herself, I came down from the bus and went to sit in one of the primary schools.
“If you build a primary school and the place is surrounded by people who are cooking and selling and buying, that is not a conducive atmosphere for learning and we did not say we would come there with caterpillars and demolish; we said we would buy the houses from the people and pay them off to be able to get a football field and provide playground for the children and fence off the school so that we can protect them from paedophiles. That was what happened.”
Governor Amaechi also spoke on the issue of Nyesom Wike, the Minister of State for Education, whom he nominated for appointment as minister.
“I hear you also visited Nyesom Wike. I try not to talk about Wike. I say so because he is my subordinate; I try not to talk about him but I hear you visited him. Why I won’t talk about him is that Nyesom Wike, his second tenure as Obio Akpor council chairman was by the grace of God, but I was the architect of that second term.
“Wike was appointed Chief of Staff by me. As a Minister of State, I nominated him. I was under pressure by the President to drop him, I refused.
“The President persuaded me to drop him and bring a woman but I refused. I hear he is going all over town, saying I didn’t appoint him. I didn’t appoint him, the President appointed him, but I nominated him to be a minister. I did but you know, character doesn’t come easily, character is a very difficult thing and I am a man of character,” Amaechi said.
You may wish to know that the clerics were in the state capital to mediate in the political crisis in the state.
The bishops had, weeks ago, visited First Lady and the Minister of State for Education, Mr. Nyesom Wike, in Abuja as part of their efforts to resolve the lingering misunderstanding between the President’s wife and the governor


LIKE EKITI, UNLIKE OSUN: WHY AREGBESOLA WILL WIN GUBER ELECTION  
Dateline was May 24, 2013. It was a Friday night. 35 Governors gathered to vote for the Chairman of the Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF). With the initial postponement and intrigues that surrounded it, it was going to be a night of long knives. With the Presidency interested in the outcome and with Governor Amaechi determined to give it another shot in spite of his open confrontation with the President, it was going to take more than ordinary determination to navigate the treacherous waters. It would take grit, uncommon courage and the ability to outfox the henchmen of the Presidency. At the entrance of the venue of the election, all the Governors were mandated to submit all their mobile phones. But one man particularly suspected there was going to be foul play so he sneaked in a pen camera. He recorded the vote counting surreptitiously until when Governor Godswill Akpabio noticed they were being secretly recorded. When controversy sprang up on the actual winner of the contest, he released the video to the public. The man who exposed the lie for what it was is Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, the Governor of Osun State.
Controversy is his middle name. For nine months, he operated solely without commissioners. He renamed Osun State and gave it a new nomenclature called State of Osun. He fashioned a new educational policy and called it reclassification of schools. In one fell swoop, schools were merged and bedlam ensued. In one school, we were treated to a picture of students dressed in choir robes, hijab and masquerade attires as uniform. Some suspected Muslim fundamentalists broke into a school and flogged a teacher. For the first time in the South West, religious embers were stoked. Then came the uniform controversy. All the public schools were mandated to adopt the same uniform all over the State. Fakunle Comprehensive School, Osogbo was demolished against plea to the contrary. He declared Hijra as a public holiday for Muslims and was the only state to do so in Nigeria. Then he declared another holiday for traditionalists called 'Isese Day'. Suspected of being a religious fundamentalist, he donated N35m for the burial of late Prophet Timothy Obadare. And then the 'Opon Imo' controversy. Then came the issue of the 'Sukuk' Islamic bond. His tenure could be appropriately termed 'one week, one trouble'.
In spite of the unending controversies and despite the appointment of an Osun State indigene Jelili Adesiyan as the Minister of Police Affairs, it is my carefully considered opinion that Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola will win the August 9 election. Here's why I think he will trump Otunba Iyiola Omisore, the PDP's candidate.


1. Omisore's Poor Candidature
Iyiola Omisore is not Peter Ayodele Fayose. He lacks the charisma of Fayose. He is not a Jimi Agbaje. He lacks the character of Agbaje. He doesn't have the mass appeal even though he has the notoriety. While you cannot deny that he has a semblance of structure having been the Deputy Governor of the State and also a Senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, his major Achilles heel is that he has been successfully tainted by the accusation of involvement in Bola Ige's murder. This is one accusation that has refused to go in spite of his protestations. In addition, his campaign is a poor caricature of Ayodele Fayose's. Whoever is his campaign director needs to get fired as he has run one of the most bizarre and lacklustre campaigns ever. His efforts to align with the masses fell flat- his handling of two roasted corn cobs in both hands, his ride to a campaign venue on an 'okada' and his absurd combination of two different 'Ankara' materials as cloth are images that have defined his campaign. He has not successfully exploited Rauf Aregbesola's obvious weaknesses. When it was time to debate Ogbeni, he didn't show up. That was an opportunity to redeem himself but he failed to utilize it. Ayo Fayose challenged Kayode Fayemi for a walk on the streets of Ado-Ekiti but Iyiola Omisore claimed he didn't come for the debate because he didn't want Ogbeni to beat him up. Is it any wonder that the President has not attended any rally in Osun State even up till now? The President must have read the handwriting on the wall and there was no point dissipating energy in the wrong direction. PDP lost it when the ticket was given to Omisore because he is irredeemable. If he's banking on federal might, he got it wrong this time because you can only rig successfully where you are popular. In fact, Ogbeni will be gifted this election not because of his superlative performance but primarily because of Omisore's poor candidature.


2. Disunity In The PDP House
No situation exacerbated the looming disunity in Osun State PDP than the statement credited to the Minister for Police Affairs that he will beat Senator Isiaka Adeleke when he leaves office. Adeleke claimed he was assaulted during a party meeting and he subsequently defected to APC. Fatai Akinbade, a former Chairman of the State PDP and a man who served three different times as Commissioner under three different three different military regimes also defected to the Labour Party. Former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola has not come out openly in support of Iyiola Omisore despite belonging to the same party. In fact, he was even courted by the top echelon of the APC. As a former National Secretary of the party and also a former Governor of the State, his body language speaks volumes. Oyinlola is a Prince of Okuku, the capital of Odo-Otin Local Government, one of the 30 Local Government areas in Osun State. It is instructive to note that Odo-Otin is one of the three local government council areas with the highest number of 15 wards in the state after Osogbo and Iwo.
Ogbeni Aregbesola's Above- Average Performance
In spite of his controversies, only a blind man will ignore Ogbeni's performance. He has built mega schools, many of them super infrastructures with commendable appurtenances. He has constructed over 20 intercity roads and more than 15 intra-city roads. This is apart from some very ambitious dualization projects embarked upon. The free festive inter-city train ride from Lagos to Osogbo has become a constant feature of his administration. I was informed that he has built 74 primary health Centres all over Osun State. He has increased IGR in Osun from N300m to N1.6b and has not been known to borrow from any financial institution, save for the Islamic bond he took. His O'Meals project is laudable. Love him or hate him, there's no denying the fact that he has improved the face of governance in the state.

4. Ogbeni's Massive Campaign Network
Ogbeni has embarked on a blitzkrieg of a campaign. Maybe due to the lessons learnt from Ekiti's recent election, he has left no stone untouched. This is the first time I'm seeing an incumbent campaign as if he's the under-dog. He has run a very good campaign so far- both terrestrially and on social media. Going by his student unionism antecedents, one is not too surprised that he has at least 2 former student leaders in his cabinet and they are both active in running his campaign. Most of the controversial issues raised have been either effectively addressed or well mitigated by this team. When the issue of religious fundamentalism came up, they released the video of Bishop David Oyedepo's visit. Ogbeni has been photographed genuflecting to Pastor Enoch Adejare Adeboye. He attended a major night vigil organized by a white garment church. He has been dancing 'skelewu' at all rallies to show he can connect with the populace. He has run his campaign without Bola Tinubu being visible so the issue of the overbearing influence of the APC leader has been largely well managed.  Ogbeni runs the best propaganda machinery in the South West and the effect can be seen in how he has successfully diverted attention from his controversies while making Omisore seem to be the controversial one.

5. The Seeming Inconsequential Position of Osun In National Politics
In the calculation of the PDP, Osun State may not really be worth the trouble. Like Ekiti, one would have expected a massive support from the centre but apart from the involvement of the Minister for Police Affairs Jelili Adesiyan and party big wig Buruji Kashamu, no other major PDP political actor has been to Osun State. Not even the Vice President Namadi Sambo who usually represents the President on most occasions. The PDP Chairman has been missing in action conspicuously and in my opinion two major issues come into consideration here: firstly, the antecedents of Osun politics where the State was the only one won by the erstwhile ACN candidate Nuhu Ribadu during the 2011 Presidential elections without having any impact on the outcome of the full national election results. The resources are limited and they would rather concentrate such where they can get the greatest political capital- Adamawa, Nassarawa, Edo, Oyo, Ogun and Lagos States. The second is the opportunity to take the wind out of the sail of APC's complaint that Osun's elections will be rigged by the PDP just like they suspected it was done in Ekiti. Furthermore, it is PDP's calculation that APC will be misled to believe they have stopped PDP's incursion in the South West. Consequently, if APC wins Osun, the party will be seen to be a bad loser anytime it complains after another loss. So PDP can afford to lose Osun State without batting an eyelid.

6. Ogbeni's Grassroots Support
Rauf Aregbesola is well schooled in the art of politics. He has been able to successfully marry both politicking and governance which was one of the major issues Governor Kayode Fayemi had. You can accuse him of everything but you can never accuse him of not connecting with the populace. With the pupils, he has appeared in their school uniform on many occasions. He has held his health walk in several towns across the states. He has several mushroom groups such as De Raufs located all over the state and these ones project his ideology. He has given himself the identity of 'Oranmiyan', a progenitor that the Yorubas respect. His support base is not limited to a particular demographics- he has a broad base across all sectors in the state. Ogbeni is street smart and can fight dirty if need be. A veteran of many political battles, he is not a gentleman like Kayode Fayemi and can be very rambunctious. That was why he asked people to come to the polling units with charms on Election Day. If there is anyone who is a true protege of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, he is one. That is one of the reasons the Ekiti story cannot repeat itself in Osun State.

7. The Geo-Political Demographics in Osun State
The geopolitical demographics currently favour Ogbeni Aregbesola. Ogbeni is from Osun East Senatorial District, the largest district in the State.Though Iyiola Omisore also hails from the same district, Ogbeni is from Ilesa, one of the three biggest towns with the highest number of voters in the state while Omisore is from Ile-Ife. Osun East with a voting strength close to 500,000 comprises of 10 Local Government Areas- 4 in Ife and 6 in Ijeshaland. There are about 1.2m registered voters in the state. Ogbeni is expected to have a clean sweep of all the 6 Local Governments in Ijeshaland while Omisore will sweep his own 4 Local Government areas. However, Ogbeni's deputy Mrs Laoye-Tomori is from the state capital, Osogbo and so he's expected to pick up the votes in the town. Iwo, which is the largest town in the State is predominantly Muslim and this will also play to Ogbeni's favour.
Omisore's deputy, ex-Speaker Adejare Bello hails from Ede, the same town Senator Isiaka Adeleke hails from. 'Serubawon' as the Senator and former Governor is popularly called has more grassroots support in Ede than Bello. His family even has a University called Adeleke University in Ede.